New IJF now accepts submissions exclusively via the Editorial Scholar portal — a dedicated submission & review system.
Go to Editorial Scholar →
Associated Management Consultants Pvt. Ltd. | COPE Member
Scopus Q2 UGC-CARE |
Indian Journal of Finance logo

Indian Journal of Finance

ISSN: 0973-8711 Frequency: Monthly Peer Review: Double-blind Published since: 2007 Language: English
A publication of AMCPL
amcon.co.in
New Delhi, India
Indexed in: Scopus Q2 UGC-CARE Group II Google Scholar J-Gate NISCAIR Crossref

Original Article

Open Access Original Article

Impact of Economic Policy Uncertainty on the Indian Stock Market : An Empirical Investigation

Naman Kalra1,  Gaurav Gupta2

1 Rating Analyst , CRISIL Limited, Gurugram, Haryana

2 Assistant Professor , FORE School of Management, Adhitam Kendra, B-18, Qutub Institutional Area, New Delhi - 110 016

Volume 17
Issue 3
Pages 50–63
Year 2023
Received: Jan. 24, 2023 Accepted: March 5, 2023 Published: March 1, 2023
Abstract

Purpose: This study examined the impact of economic policy uncertainty on the Indian stock market. Economic policy uncertainty showed that uncertainties persist in the economy and may affect economies, industries, and companies. The stock market of any economy is very volatile, and it can be easily affected by any small changes in the economy on a national and international level. We argued that EPU also significantly affected the Indian stock market.Design/Methodology/Approach : We analyzed the relationship of economic policy uncertainty with stock prices and market volatility using linear and logarithmic regression.

Findings: Our study found that economic policy uncertainty had a positive correlation with market volatility and a significant negative relationship with returns on the Indian stock market. Further, EPU had negative impacts on the performance of firms. We also found that economic policy uncertainty did not have a similar impact on every sector. Sectors dealing with discretionary products and services like automobiles were more negatively impacted than sectors like fast-moving consumer goods and pharmaceuticals.Practical

Implications: An investor must understand the impact of uncertainties on equity investments and different sectors to make sound decisions during such times. This information can be used both by firms and retail investors to act accordingly when the future trajectory of the economy is uncertain. Also, the authorities should try to reduce such risks as these can negatively impact the economic growth of a country.Originality/

Value: This study contributes to the existing literature by examining the impact of economic policy uncertainty on the Indian stock market. Further, this study stated that economic policy uncertainty could be used as a predictive variable in addition to other macroeconomic variables in stock prediction models, making this study unique.

Keywords Economic Policy Uncertainty Stock Market Emerging Markets. JELClassification Codes
How to Cite

Naman Kalra, Gaurav Gupta (2023). Impact of Economic Policy Uncertainty on the Indian Stock Market : An Empirical Investigation. Indian Journal of Finance, 17(3), 50–63. https://doi.org/10.17010/ijf/2023/v17i3/172672

References
  1. Ashraf, S., & Baig, M. A. (2019). Is the Indian stock market efficiently inefficient? An empirical investigation. Indian Journal of Finance, 13(7), 7–28. https://doi.org/10.17010/ijf/2019/v13i7/145532
  2. Ashwani, & Sheera, V. P. (2018). Indian stock market volatility and economic fundamentals: MIDAS approach. Indian Journal of Finance, 12(8), 7–21. https://doi.org/10.17010/ijf/2018/v12i8/130741
  3. Baker, S. R., Bloom, N., & Davis, S. J. (2016). Measuring economic policy uncertainty. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 131(4), 1593–1636. https://doi.org/10.1093/qje/qjw024
  4. Bhagat, S., Ghosh, P., & Rangan, S. (2016). Economic policy uncertainty and growth in India. Economic and Political Weekly, 51(35), 72–81. https://www.jstor.org/stable/44004652
  5. Bonaime, A., Gulen, H., & Ion, M. (2018). Does policy uncertainty affect mergers and acquisitions? Journal of Financial Economics, 129(3), 531–558. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfineco.2018.05.007
  6. Chiang, T. C. (2019). Empirical analysis of economic policy uncertainty and stock returns in Asian markets. Advances in Pacific Basin Business, Economics and Finance (Vol. 7, pp. 63–87). Emerald Publishing Limited. https://doi.org/10.1108/S2514-465020190000007004
  7. Debata, B., & Mahakud, J. (2018). Economic policy uncertainty and stock market liquidity: Does financial crisis make any difference? Journal of Financial Economic Policy, 10(1), 112–135. https://doi.org/10.1108/JFEP-09-2017-0088
  8. Gupta, G. (2022). CEO’s educational background, economic policy uncertainty and investmentcash flow sensitivity: Evidence from India. Applied Economics, 54(5), 568–579. https://doi.org/10.1080/00036846.2021.1967279
  9. Gupta, G., & Mahakud, J. (2019). Alternative measure of financial development and investment-cash flow sensitivity: Evidence from an emerging economy. Financial Innovation, 5, Article 1. https://doi.org/10.1186/s40854-018-0118-9
  10. Gupta, G., & Mahakud, J. (2020). The impact of macroeconomic condition on investment-cash flow sensitivity of Indian firms: Do business group affiliation and firm size matter? South Asian Journal of Business Studies, 9(1), 19–42. https://doi.org/10.1108/SAJBS-06-2018-0073
  11. Gupta, G., Mahakud, J., & Singh, V. K. (2022). Economic policy uncertainty and investment-cash flow sensitivity: Evidence from India. International Journal of Emerging Markets, Vol. Ahead-of-Print No. (ahead-of-print). https://doi.org/10.1108/IJOEM-11-2020-1415
  12. Jha, S. K., Bhattacharya, S. N., & Bhattacharya, M. (2019). Google search volume and stock market liquidity. Indian Journal of Finance, 13(8), 51–64. https://doi.org/10.17010/ijf/2019/v13i8/146304
  13. Kang, W., Lee, K., & Ratti, R. A. (2014). Economic policy uncertainty and firm-level investment. Journal of Macroeconomics, 39 (Part A), 42–53. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmacro.2013.10.006
  14. Kanojia, S., & Malhotra, D. (2021). A case study of stock market bubbles in the Indian stock market. Indian Journal of Finance, 15(2), 22–48. https://doi.org/10.17010/ijf/2021/v15i2/157638
  15. Liu, L., & Zhang, T. (2015). Economic policy uncertainty and stock market volatility. Finance Research Letters, 15, 99–105. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.frl.2015.08.009
  16. Panagiotidis, T., & Printzis, P. (2020). What is the investment loss due to uncertainty? Global Finance Journal, 45, 100476. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gfj.2019.100476
  17. Pandey, A., & Pattanayak, J. K. (2018). Impact of firm specific and macro-economic factors on the level of underpricing of initial public offerings (IPOs): Evidence from the Indian market. Indian Journal of Finance, 12(2), 7–25. https://doi.org/10.17010/ijf/2018/v12i2/121367
  18. Parthasarathy, S. (2019). Revisiting the weak form efficiency with structural breaks: Evidence from the Indian stock market. Indian Journal of Finance, 13(10), 7–21. https://doi.org/10.17010/ijf/2019/v13i10/147744
  19. Paule-Vianez, J., Prado-Román, C., & Gómez-Martínez, R. (2020). Monetary policy uncertainty and stock market return: Influence of limits to arbitrage and the economic cycle. Studies in Economics and Finance, 37(4), 777–798. https://doi.org/10.1108/SEF-04-2020-0102
  20. Phan, D. H., Sharma, S. S., & Tran, V. T. (2018). Can economic policy uncertainty predict stock returns? Global evidence. Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, 55, 134–150. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.intfin.2018.04.004
  21. Phan, H. V., Nguyen, N. H., Nguyen, H. T., & Hegde, S. (2019). Policy uncertainty and firm cash holdings. Journal of Business Research, 95, 71–82. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbusres.2018.10.001
  22. Priyaranjan, N., & Pratap, B. (2020). Macroeconomic effects of uncertainty: A big data analysis for India (RBI Working Paper No. 04/2020). https://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3852940
  23. Rehman, M. U., & Apergis, N. (2019). Sensitivity of economic policy uncertainty to investor sentiment: Evidence from Asian, developed and European markets. Studies in Economics and Finance, 36(2), 114–129. https://doi.org/10.1108/SEF-01-2019-0040
  24. Shaikh, I. (2019). On the relationship between economic policy uncertainty and the implied volatility index. Sustainability, 11(6), 1628. https://doi.org/10.3390/su11061628
  25. Srivastava, H., Solomon, P., & Singh, S. P. (2022). Oversubscription of initial public offerings of SMEs in India: A quantile regression analysis. Indian Journal of Finance, 16(7), 42–56. https://doi.org/10.17010/ijf/2022/v16i7/170634
  26. Wang, Y., Chen, C. R., & Huang, Y. S. (2014). Economic policy uncertainty and corporate investment: Evidence from China. Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, 26, 227–243. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pacfin.2013.12.008
Editorial Scholar

Submit your Research to IJF

Submit your Manuscript → Author Guidelines